ISSN 2786-4561 (printed)
ISSN 2786-457X (online)
Vol.7.1 (2026). pp. 98-108
Trends in Changes in the Climatic Norm for Air Temperature in the Central Region of Ukraine
Snizhko S.
https://orcid.org/ 0000-0002-2696-687X
Kolotukhina A.
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-9576-0278
Pavlovskyi V.
https://orcid.org/0009-0001-4044-9457
Taras Shevchenko National University, Kyiv, Ukraine
https://doi.org/10.17721/2786-4561.2026.7.1-11/14
Annotation. This paper presents the results of a study on current (1961–2020) and projected (1961–2080) changes in air temperature in the Central Region of Ukraine. This region encompasses part of the forested steppe, a warm zone with insufficient moisture (the territories of Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, and Poltava regions) and part of the steppe, an arid, very warm zone (the territories of Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk regions). The study utilized instrumental observation data from the Central Geophysical Observatory of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine for the period from 1961 to 2020, collected at 28 meteorological stations. To study future changes in air temperature in the region, data from the European ISIMIP2b project were used, which were specifically prepared for the 2018 IPCC “Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C,” specifically two РТК (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios: the “mild” РТК 2.6 scenario, which, in accordance with the Paris Agreement, envisages a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a return to a radiative forcing of 2.6 W/m? by 2100, and the “high” РТК 8.5 scenario, which does not account for any adaptation or mitigation measures. Climatic temperature norms were calculated and analyzed for four 30-year climate periods. It has been established that the average annual temperature in the forest-steppe zone will rise from 7.4°C in 1961–1990 to 10.6–10.9°C in 2021–2050 and to 12.6–11.3°C in 2051–2080. In the steppe zone, this figure will rise from 8.3°C in 1961–1990 to 11.0–11.4°C in 2021–2050 and to 11.6–13.2°C in 2051–2080. For the РТК 2.6 scenario, the average rate of warming in the Central region of Ukraine during 1961–2080 is estimated at 0.038°C per year. And for the РТК 8.5 scenario, the average rate of warming during 1961–2080 is estimated at 0.053°C per year.
Keywords: climate change, air temperature, climate norm, rate of warming, climate projections
References:
Air temperature dynamics in Ukraine during the period of instrumental meteorological observations. (2013). Kyiv: Nika-Centre. 308 p.
Balabukh, V. O., Malytska, L. V. (2017). Assessment of recent changes in Ukraine’s thermal regime. Geoinformatics. No. 4(64). P. 34–49.
Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., et al. (2024). Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Geoscientific Model Development. Vol. 17. P. 1–51.
General Geographical Atlas of Ukraine (2004). Kyiv: State Scientific and Production Enterprise “Cartography”. 220 p.
IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
IPCC, 2023. Synthesis report of the sixth assessment report: climate change (2023). Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/ar6-syr (accessed: 01.04.2026).
ISIMIP, 2019. The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (2019). Retrieved from https://www.isimip.org/ (accessed: 01.04.2026).
Krakovska, S. V., Hnatiuk, N. V., Shpytal, T. M., Palamarchuk, L. V. (2016). Prohnoz zmin temperatury pryzemnoho povitria za danymy ansambliu rehionalnykh klimatychnykh modelei v rehionakh Ukrainy u XXI stolitti [Projections of changes in surface air temperature based on data from an ensemble of regional climate models in the regions of Ukraine in the 21st century]. Naukovi pratsi Ukrainskoho hidrometeorolohichnoho instytutu [Scientific Papers of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute]. Issue 268. P. 33–44 (in Ukrainian).
Lindsey, R., Dahlman, L. (2020). Climate change: global temperature. Climate Watch. Retrieved from https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change (accessed: 04.04.2026).
Mann, M. E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B. A., Miller, S. K., Coumou, D. (2017). Influence of anthropogenic climate change on planetary wave resonance and extreme weather events. Scientific Reports. Vol. 7. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1038/srep45242.
NASA, 2025. Climate change: global temperature (2025). Retrieved from https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change (accessed: 19.04.2026).
Nature and climate at Davos 2025 (2025). Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/02/nature-and-climate-at-davos-2025-key-takeaways/ (accessed: 01.04.2026).
Order of the State Committee of Ukraine on Hydrometeorology No. 14 of 20 March 1997 “On the terminology of the territorial division of Ukraine in forecasts and warnings” (1997).
Prusov, V. A., Snizhko, S. I. (2017). Methods of applied systems analysis in hydrometeorology. Kyiv: Print-Service. 760 p.
Shevchenko, O., Lee, H., Snizhko, S., Mayer, H. (2014). Long-term analysis of heat waves in Ukraine. International Journal of Climatology. Vol. 34(5). P. 1642–1650. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3792.
Shevchenko, O., Snizhko, S. (2019). Zminy klimatu ta ukrainski mista: proiavy ta prohnozy na XXI stolittia na osnovi RCP-stsenariiv [Climate change and Ukrainian cities: manifestations and projections for the 21st century based on RCP scenarios]. Visnyk Kyivskoho natsionalnoho universytetu imeni Tarasa Shevchenka. Heohrafiia. 2(75). P. 11–18. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2721.2019.75.2 (in Ukrainian).
Snizhko, S., Bronstert, A., Didovets, I. (2024). Ukraine’s water security under pressure: climate change and wartime. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4776649.
Snizhko, S., Shevchenko, O., Buznytskyi, B., Krukivska, A., Matviienko, M. (2020). Proektsii temperatury povitria v pivnichnomu rehioni Ukrainy za promizhnym stsenariiem (RCP 4.5) ta vysokym stsenariiem (RCP 8.5) [The projections of air temperature in the Northern region of Ukraine following the intermediate scenario (RCP 4.5) and the high-end scenario (RCP 8.5)]. Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.202056035 (in Ukrainian).
Wilson, L., New, S., Daron, J., Golding, N. ( 2021). Climate change impacts for Ukraine. Met Office. 34 p.